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[NEW]  MichaelMot E-MAILWEB  - 25/6/11(水) 2:57 -

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   There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this weekbut don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible over the oceans it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
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[NEW]  MauriceDet E-MAILWEB  - 25/6/11(水) 2:53 -

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   US and Chinese trade representatives are set to meet in Geneva this weekend for their first face to face meeting in an attempt to deescalate the trade war. Most goods shipping from China to the United States have a 145% tariff, while most US exports to China are being hit with a 125% tariff. On Friday, President Donald Trump suggested lowering the tariff rate with China to 80%, but said the final terms would be up to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
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“If things don’t change quickly, I’m talking about the uncertainty that we’re seeing, then we may be seeing empty products on the shelves. This is now going to be felt by the consumer in the coming 30 days,” said Cordero.

Upwards of 63% of the cargo that flows into the Port of Long Beach is from China the largest share of any US port. But that number is down from 72% in 2016 as retailers shift away from China over simmering trade tensions.

Even so, China still represents a major source of imports into the United States. Maersk, the second largest shipping line in the world, told CNN the cargo volume between the United States and China has fallen by 30-40% compared to normal.

“If we don’t start to see a de-escalation of the situation with China, if we don’t start to see more of those trade deals, then we could be in a situation where some of these effects get more entrenched and are more adverse,” said Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc.
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[NEW]  Rolandjus E-MAILWEB  - 25/6/11(水) 2:35 -

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   Taylor Swift has been subpoenaed in the case between Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni.

Swift a longtime friend of Lively’s was first mentioned in connection to the ongoing legal dispute between Lively and her “It Ends with Us” director and costar when text exchanges were revealed to include the name “Taylor” as part of Baldoni’s $400 million defamation countersuit against Lively and her husband Ryan Reynolds in January.
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A spokesperson for Swift on Friday told CNN, “Taylor Swift never set foot on the set of this movie, she was not involved in any casting or creative decisions, she did not score the film, she never saw an edit or made any notes on the film, she did not even see ‘It Ends With Us’ until weeks after its public release, and was traveling around the globe during 2023 and 2024.”

“The connection Taylor had to this film was permitting the use of one song, ‘My Tears Ricochet.’ Given that her involvement was licensing a song for the film, which 19 other artists also did, this document subpoena is designed to use Taylor Swift’s name to draw public interest by creating tabloid clickbait instead of focusing on the facts of the case,” the spokesperson added.

CNN has reached out to representatives for Baldoni for comment.

When reached for comment later on Friday, a spokesperson for Lively said Baldoni and his legal team “continue to turn a case of sexual harassment and retaliation into entertainment for the tabloids.”
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この掲示板は文字だけでなく画像も投稿できます。 又、自由にスレッドも立てることができますので、お気軽にご利用下さい。
※投稿された書き込み、画像、情報等は「情報誌ぱど」をはじめとする、 ぱどグループが発行する媒体及び、WEBサービスに掲載される場合があります。