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MichaelMot  - 25/6/14(土) 17:15 -

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There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one порно жесткий анал A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this weekbut don’t panic. It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.” Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models　computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions　but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this　all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance　but it is notorious for doing so. For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season　June through November. It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models　like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM　is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible　over the oceans　it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
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Jasontally  - 25/6/14(土) 16:59 -

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WASHINGTON　“Liberation Day” just gave way to Capitulation Day. btrhbfeojofxcpxuwnsp5h7h22htohw4btqegnxatocbkgdlfiawhyid onion President Donald Trump pulled back Wednesday on a series of harsh tariffs targeting friends and foes alike in an audacious bid to remake the global economic order. Trump's early afternoon announcement followed a harrowing week in which Republican lawmakers and confidants privately warned him that the tariffs could wreck the economy. His own aides had quietly raised alarms about the financial markets before he suspended a tariff regime that he had unveiled with a flourish just one week earlier in a Rose Garden ceremony. Follow live politics coverage here skyiwredshjnhjgeleladu7m7mgpuxgsnfxzhncwtvmhr7l5bniutayd The stock market rose immediately after the about-face, ending days of losses that have forced older Americans who've been sinking their savings into 401(k)s to rethink their retirement plans. Ahead of Trump's announcement, some of his advisers had been in a near panic about the bond markets, according to a senior administration official. Interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds had been rising, contrary to what normally happens when stock prices fall and investors seek safety in treasuries. The unusual dynamic meant that at the same time the tariffs could push up prices, people would be paying more to buy homes or pay off credit card debt because of higher interest rates. Businesses looking to expand would pay more for new loans. skyiwredshjnhjgeleladu7m7mgpuxgsnfxzhncwtvmhr7l5bniutayd.onion Two of Trump's most senior advisers, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, presented a united front Wednesday, urging him to suspend the tariffs in light of the bond market, the administration official said. In a social media post, Trump announced a 90-day pause that he said he’ll use to negotiate deals with dozens of countries that have expressed openness to revising trade terms that he contends exploit American businesses and workers. One exception is China. Trump upped the tariff on the country’s biggest geopolitical rival to 125%, part of a tit-for-tat escalation in an evolving trade war. Trump reversed course one week after he appeared in the Rose Garden and unveiled his plan to bring jobs back to the United States. Displaying a chart showing the new, elevated tariffs that countries would face, Trump proclaimed, “My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day.” skyiwredshjnhjgeleladu7m7mgpuxgsnfxzhncwtvmhr7l5bniutayd onion https://absmeat.ru
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Michaelbouse  - 25/6/14(土) 16:56 -

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Samuelannef  - 25/6/14(土) 16:55 -

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