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[NEW]  MichaelMot E-MAILWEB  - 25/6/15(日) 17:32 -

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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this weekbut don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

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The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

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The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
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デイムズDAMES
この掲示板は文字だけでなく画像も投稿できます。 又、自由にスレッドも立てることができますので、お気軽にご利用下さい。
※投稿された書き込み、画像、情報等は「情報誌ぱど」をはじめとする、 ぱどグループが発行する媒体及び、WEBサービスに掲載される場合があります。